DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers just completed their first full month of the season with a winning record, but it didn’t come without some major concerns.
Through the first 30 games of 2024, there’s one topic on the mid of every Tigers fan: struggling hitters.
Spencer Torkelson is bearing the brunt of fan frustration, but the struggles of Parker Meadows and Colt Keith haven’t gone unnoticed, either.
That one time Max Scherzer got sent down
Here’s the thing about Tigers fans: When players are struggling, we love to bring up that one time Max Scherzer got demoted in 2010.
Through his first eight starts of the 2010 season, Scherzer was a complete disaster. He allowed 34 earned runs, nine homers, and 70 base runners in just 42 innings -- good for a 7.29 ERA, .955 opponent OPS, and 1.67 WHIP.
And he only struck out 26 batters.
The Tigers sent him to Triple-A Toledo to work on his command, and the improvement was drastic and immediate.
Scherzer struck out 17 batters in 15 innings while allowing just four hits, two walks, and one run in two Triple-A outings. He was called back up to Detroit and struck out 14 batters across 5.2 scoreless innings his first time out.
In his final 23 starts after returning from the minors, Scherzer was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He posted a 2.46 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and struck out more than a batter per inning.
Scherzer went on to establish himself as a Hall of Fame-caliber starter after the May 2010 demotion. He’s won 193 games and posted a 3.05 ERA in 380 games. That stretch includes three Cy Young awards and eight consecutive top-five finishes (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020).
Naturally, because of this very high-profile example, Tigers fans like to believe that sending players to Triple-A will fix whatever is holding them back.
But that’s not always the case.
Counterpoint: Jeimer Candelario
The Tigers tried to get Jeimer Candelario going in 2019 by sending him down to Triple-A. He was batting .192 on May 15 with only two homers and 46 strikeouts in 38 games.
Candelario played 21 games with the Mud Hens from May 17 to June 25 (with a couple of quick returns to Detroit mixed in to replace injured players). Over that span, he hit .345 with five homers, five doubles, two triples, 12 walks, and 25 strikeouts in Triple-A.
But when Candelario returned to Detroit, he was not fixed. He hit just .222 over the next 31 games before hitting the injured list in August.
He played well in Toledo during his rehab assignment -- a .290 average and .939 OPS in 18 games -- but then hit just .230 with absolutely no power in the final 20 games for Detroit.
This isn’t to say that trips to the minors can’t help. It’s just a reminder that they’re no guarantee. Not everyone responds as well as Scherzer.
When should a player get sent down?
I think a safe expectation for demoting players is that it works best for those who have a very obvious issue to work on.
Scherzer, for example, needed to tweak something with his command. The Tigers sent him to Toledo to do that in an environment where it wouldn’t hurt their MLB record, and everything clicked.
If the Tigers see something mechanically wrong with Torkelson, Meadows, or Keith -- or just something they want them to key in on for several games in a row without sweating the results -- they should consider sending them down to make the proper adjustments against less competitive pitching.
But if they’re just in a slump, a few weeks beating up on minor leaguers isn’t going to make MLB pitchers any less likely to exploit them when they return.
Should Spencer Torkelson be sent down?
- Season stats: .216/.290/.297, 0 homers, 9 doubles, 11 walks, 27 strikeouts.
Torkelson is taking a lot of heat for his cold start because, well, he hit 31 homers last season, and as a former No. 1 overall pick, a lot of people assumed he would just be an elite power hitter from now on.
But in reality, Torkelson’s MLB career has been mostly bad.
On Aug. 11, 2023, Torkelson was sporting a .699 OPS for the Tigers through 114 games. Combine that with the .604 OPS he posted across 110 games as a rookie in 2022 and the .587 OPS he’s got so far in 2024, and we have 252 games of poor production to completely overshadow one promising 45-game stretch to end last season.
Let’s be clear: I’m not giving up on a 24-year-old who has mashed at every stop en route to the major leagues. But I do think it might have been premature to pencil Torkelson in for 30 homers this year.
In the past, when Torkelson struggled at the MLB level, he had promising underlying numbers to fall back on. He was impacting the ball in a way that we could reasonably predict would eventually result in production.
That’s not the case right now.
Torkelson’s expected batting average is lower than his actual batting average. He ranks in the 11th percentile of MLB hitters in barrel percentage, and the sixth percentile in sweet spot percentage.
The plate discipline has been OK, but right now, Torkelson just isn’t hitting the ball hard.
Popups and weak fly balls have been a major issue. When Torkelson posted an 89th percentile barrel rate in 2023, he had an average launch angle of 17.1 degrees. Right now, he’s over 21 degrees, largely because of a 15.9% popup rate and a 55% fly ball rate -- both well above his career average.
Popups are as bad as strikeouts, and Torkelson is hitting a bunch of them.
So should the Tigers demote their cornerstone first baseman? Well, they tried that during his rookie season, and it didn’t really work.
Torkelson was hitting .197 with a .577 OPS through 83 games in 2022, and the Tigers sent him down on July 16. He only hit .229 with a .738 OPS and 41 strikeouts in 35 games with the Mud Hens before returning to Detroit at the start of September.
In his final 27 MLB games, Torkelson hit .219 with a .678 OPS. Yuck.
That his struggles continued in Toledo suggests to me that Torkelson’s issue had little to do with the quality of the pitching. There was something under his control that needed to be fixed.
Now, is that mysterious “something” easier to fix against minor-league pitchers than Pablo Lopez and Cole Ragans? Absolutely.
Another quick point on the Torkelson conundrum: None of us on the outside can quantify exactly how much his absence would hurt the team. Right now, the Tigers are winning, and Torkelson is one of the leaders in the dugout. Would his demotion have an unintended consequence on the rest of the team?
We can’t know that for sure. But what’s clear is that on the field, Torkelson is hurting the team. He’s currently worth -1.0 bWAR and -0.4 fWAR through his first 28 games. Fangraphs says he’s been the 12th-worst player in the league (Keith is eighth).
Mark Canha has started to see some time at first base, with three starts there in his last seven games. Even though it’s a risk, I don’t think the Tigers can wait all season to give Torkelson a bit of a mental reset.
- VERDICT: We’re not sending him down yet. Let’s revisit in June.
Should Parker Meadows be sent down?
- Season stats: .100/.222/.229, 2 homers, 1 double, 10 walks, 30 strikeouts.
The situation with Meadows is more clear-cut than with Torkelson: How much are the Tigers willing to sacrifice offensively to keep an elite glove in center field?
Meadows has started all but six games so far this season, but the Tigers have been willing to sacrifice his defense against left-handed starters, so it’s not out of the question that they would roll with Matt Vierling for a couple of weeks to try to get his bat back on track.
Meadows doesn’t need to hit much to be a valuable player. Look no further than last month: He was worth 0.3 bWAR and 0.0 fWAR even with dismal offensive numbers.
But he can’t be this bad. Meadows is 7-for-70 this season -- seven for seventy! He’s not hitting the ball hard at all and he’s striking out way too much. His 12% walk rate is the only positive in the profile.
Because he’s never getting hits, Meadows is neutralizing one of his greatest assets: speed on the base paths. Part of what makes him such an exciting player is his 97th percentile sprint speed and 91st percentile base running rating -- but he hardly ever gets to use it.
If Meadows could even hit around .200, his on-base percentage would probably rise north of .300, and his base running would make him a positive overall offensive player. But right now, he’s pretty much an automatic out.
Popups are an even bigger problem for Meadows than they are for Torkelson. An unsightly 25.9% of Meadows’ balls in play have resulted in popups this season. He hasn’t hit a single line drive, and only 25% of his balls in play have registered as ground balls.
Meadows is doing the exact opposite of maximizing his skill set by taking speed completely out of the equation. Popups and lazy fly balls are outs no matter how fast you can run.
It’s going to be hard for the Tigers to demote a player who has a 95th percentile fielding run value. The entire pitching staff would suffer, and playing Riley Greene part-time in center field would put his health at risk.
If Meadows continues to struggle this badly, the Tigers won’t have any choice but to send him down. But for now, he’s doing enough in the outfield to stay with Detroit.
- VERDICT: Keep him in the lineup.
Should Colt Keith be sent down?
- Season stats: .154/.222/.165, 0 homers, 1 double, 8 walks, 18 strikeouts.
Early in the season, Keith was putting together solid at-bats without rewarding results. Then, he was struggling at the plate but playing strong defense. Now, everything is starting to trend in the wrong direction.
Keith signed a massive contract extension this offseason that will likely keep him in Detroit for nine years, and that all but guaranteed he would make the team despite an underwhelming spring.
Now he’s nearly 100 plate appearances into his MLB debut, and Keith only has one extra-base hit (a double) to go along with a team-worst .404 OPS. He’s 3-for-45 in the last 15 games with three singles, four walks, and 10 strikeouts.
I’m not worried about Keith long-term because he hasn’t been overpowered by MLB pitching. He’s maintaining a league-average walk rate while showing solid overall plate discipline (69th percentile strikeout rate, 54th percentile chase rate, 50th percentile whiff rate).
The problem is Keith’s batted ball metrics don’t match up with his production in the minor leagues. We’re talking about a player who hit .306 with 38 doubles and 27 homers as a 21-year-old in Triple-A last season. He rakes.
Right now, too many Keith at-bats end with routine ground balls to the right side of the infield. He’s sporting a 47.1% ground ball rate, a 48.6% pull rate, and a 40% “topped” rate. Only two of his 70 balls in play have registered as “solid” contact on Statcast.
It’s obvious Keith is rolling over far too often. That seems like the type of issue he might be able to work out against minor-league pitching.
Keith is pressing right now, and it’s not going to do him any good if he continues to try to swim upstream against MLB pitchers. He’s 22 years old and only one month into his MLB debut -- a trip to the minors to get his swing back on track seems perfectly reasonable.
If Keith is still in a slump when Gio Urshela is ready to return from the injured list, I think the Tigers should send him down and let Andy Ibanez and Zach McKinstry handle second base temporarily.
- VERDICT: If his struggles continue, send him down when Urshela returns.
Final thoughts
Here are some of the issues to consider for all three of these situations:
I think all three players could benefit from a few games against lesser pitching, so that takes care of No. 1.
Canha can fill in at first base for Torkelson, and the Tigers have some versatile infielders who could play second base. But there’s no replacing Meadows in center field.
Keith and Meadows are young enough that their absence probably wouldn’t disrupt the locker room too much, but Torkelson is a much more delicate situation. He’s a leader and came up with guys like Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and most of the pitching staff. A.J. Hinch would have to carefully weigh the pros and cons of demoting Torkelson.
The Tigers are staying afloat even with one-third of their everyday players struggling, and in a way, that’s a good sign.
But the AL Central is a competitive four-team race, and the Tigers can’t afford to wait forever for these young bats to heat up.